International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research
· 2026 · 123 citationsRead the paper
The economic consideration of trapping (harvesting) and selling desert locusts can be the best technique to balance crop production losses caused by locust infestation and environmental devastation from chemical means of locust control.In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model is used to examine the effects of locusts on maize productivity, and the mechanical control mechanism that is comparable advantage over locust-maize infestation.The model incorporates trapping, selling locusts, fixed and variable costs for revenue and profit maximization.The positivity of the model was determined by using the ordinary differential equation of the maize population to prove if the model is mathematical and biologically meaningful.Model validation and parameter estimation were done by using a non-linear least square optimization algorithm to assess the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model.The numerical simulation of the model was done by using Runge-kutta fourth order algorithm with the aid of Ode 45 solver on MATLAB software.From the simulation, the results show that the locust outbreak influenced the positive gain (profit) of the business through maximum trapping efforts.This suggests that the total loss on maize crop production should be compensated with locust trapping, processing, and selling for business purposes while avoiding the application of chemical sprays for locust control that are not environmentally friendly.
What the full text shows
Theory or simulation- Gains from selling trapped locusts outweigh maize production losses after a specific timeframe. — after 30 days (based on numerical simulation of the deterministic model)
- Maize productivity falls rapidly during the initial stage of locust infestation. — within the first 10 days (based on numerical simulation)
- Immediate trapping of locusts reduces their concentration. — after the first 20 days (based on numerical simulation)
- Increased trapping rates correlate with increased revenue and profits. — exponential increase in profit curve (based on numerical simulation)
- Setup
- Synthetic data sets were created with initial conditions M(0)=1000, L(0)=100, H(0)=0, and S(0)=0, and a locust-to-weight conversion coefficient of 50 locusts per 1 kg.
- How
- The authors developed a deterministic mathematical model using ordinary differential equations to simulate locust-maize interaction and economic outcomes. They used a non-linear least square optimization algorithm for parameter estimation and a Runge-Kutta fourth-order algorithm (ode45 in MATLAB) for numerical simulation.
- Limitations
- The model uses synthetic data for validation rather than empirical field data. · Market competition, marketing expenses, and seasonality were neglected in the revenue function. · The model assumes a fixed conversion coefficient for locust weight.
Summarized by Gemma 4 from the open-access full text · 11 Oct 2026. Read it