Environmental impact and net-zero pathways for sustainable artificial intelligence servers in the USA
Tianqi Xiao, Francesco Fuso Nerini, H. Damon Matthews, Massimo Tavoni, Fengqi You · 2025 · 105 citationsRead the paper
The rapidly increasing demand for generative artificial intelligence (AI) models requires extensive server installation with sustainability implications in terms of the compound energy–water–climate impacts. Here we show that the deployment of AI servers across the United States could generate an annual water footprint ranging from 731 to 1,125 million m3 and additional annual carbon emissions from 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent between 2024 and 2030, depending on the scale of expansion. Other factors, such as industry efficiency initiatives, grid decarbonization rates and the spatial distribution of server locations within the United States, drive deep uncertainties in the estimated water and carbon footprints. We show that the AI server industry is unlikely to meet its net-zero aspirations by 2030 without substantial reliance on highly uncertain carbon offset and water restoration mechanisms. Although best practices may reduce emissions and water footprints by up to 73% and 86%, respectively, their effectiveness is constrained by current energy infrastructure limitations. These findings underscore the urgency of accelerating the energy transition and point to the need for AI companies to harness the clean energy potential of Midwestern states. Coordinating efforts of private actors and regulatory interventions would ensure the competitive and sustainable development of the AI sector. The rapid expansion of AI server installations in the United States poses sustainability challenges in terms of water usage and carbon emissions. A study now quantifies these potential impacts and outlines coordinated mitigation strategies for the AI sector to achieve net-zero.
What the full text shows
Theory or simulation- Projected annual water footprint for AI servers in the USA. — 731 to 1,125 million m3 (Between 2024 and 2030, depending on expansion scale)
- Projected additional annual carbon emissions for AI servers in the USA. — 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent (Between 2024 and 2030, depending on expansion scale)
- Potential reduction in water footprint through best practices. — up to 86% (Compared to baseline/worst practices)
- Potential reduction in carbon emissions through best practices. — up to 73% (Compared to baseline/worst practices)
- Contribution of indirect water footprint to total water footprint. — 71% (AI server operations)
- Contribution of direct water use to total water footprint. — 29% (AI server operations)
- Setup
- Analysis of AI server deployment across the United States, utilizing industry reports on CoWoS capacity and existing/planned data center configurations.
- How
- The study used scenario-based projections (Low-demand, Low-power, Mid-case, High-application) based on CoWoS manufacturing capacity and Nvidia DGX system parameters. It integrated PUE/WUE values, state-level climate data, and ReEDS model grid carbon/water factors to estimate impacts from 2024 to 2030.
- Limitations
- Opaque official supply-chain reports regarding the number of manufactured AI server units · Current energy infrastructure limitations constrain the effectiveness of best practices · Potential connectivity and security gaps in optimal Midwestern regions (MT, NE, SD) · Reliance on uncertain carbon offset and water restoration mechanisms for net-zero goals
Summarized by Gemma 4 from the open-access full text · 13 Oct 2026. Read it