Cancer statistics, 2026
Rebecca L. Siegel, Tyler B. Kratzer, Nikita Sandeep Wagle, Hyuna Sung, Ahmedin Jemal · 2026 · 366 citationsRead the paper
Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence and outcomes using data collected by central cancer registries (incidence, through 2022) and the National Center for Health Statistics (mortality, through 2023). In 2026, approximately 2,114,850 new cancer cases and 626,140 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. The cancer mortality rate continued to decline through 2023, averting 4.8 million deaths since 1991, largely because of smoking reductions, earlier detection, and improved treatment. These interventions are also evident in rising 5-year relative survival, which reached a milestone 70% for diagnoses during 2015-2021 overall, 69% for regional-stage disease, and 35% for distant-stage (metastatic) disease, up from 63%, 54%, and 17%, respectively, in the mid-1990s. People with high-mortality cancers and advanced diagnoses had the largest gains, including increases from 32% to 62% for myeloma, 7% to 22% for liver cancer, 16% to 35% for metastatic melanoma, 8% to 18% for metastatic rectal cancer, 20% to 37% for regional lung cancer, and 2% to 10% for metastatic lung cancer. Nevertheless, lung cancer will cause more deaths in 2026 than second-ranking colorectal cancer and third-ranking pancreatic cancer combined. In summary, decades of scientific investment have translated to longer lives for people with even the most fatal cancers. However, continued progress is threatened by proposed federal cuts to cancer research and health insurance, which provides access to life-saving cancer treatment.
What the full text shows
Tested in real conditions- Projected new cancer cases and deaths in the US for 2026. — 2,114,850 new cases; 626,140 deaths (United States population)
- Overall 5-year relative survival rate for all cancers combined. — 70% (up from 49% in mid-1970s) (Diagnoses during 2015-2021)
- Total cancer deaths averted since 1991. — 4.8 million deaths (United States population)
- 5-year relative survival for specific high-mortality cancers. — Myeloma: 32% to 62%; Liver: 7% to 22%; Metastatic melanoma: 16% to 35%; Metastatic rectal: 8% to 18%; Regional lung: 20% to 37%; Metastatic lung: 2% to 10% (Comparison of mid-1990s vs 2015-2021)
- Lifetime probability of being diagnosed with invasive cancer. — 39.2% for men; 38.7% for women (United States population)
- Impact of cigarette smoking on 2026 projected cancer deaths. — 182,830 deaths (Direct or secondhand smoke exposure)
- Setup
- Data from SEER, NPCR, NAACCR, and NCHS covering the US population, with contemporary survival based on registries representing 42% of the US population.
- How
- Two-step statistical modeling using a data-driven Joinpoint algorithm to project incidence and mortality. Survival was calculated using the Ederer II method for expected survival and the actuarial method for observed survival.
- Limitations
- Model-based estimates are not suitable for tracking temporal trends due to methodology changes. · Underestimation of incidence and mortality in non-White populations, particularly Native Americans, due to reporting errors. · Lack of sexual orientation and gender identity data for LGBTQ+ populations. · Exclusion of basal cell and squamous cell skin cancers from estimates due to registry recording gaps.
Summarized by Gemma 4 from the open-access full text · 3 Oct 2026. Read it